Back in early October, around when I was creating the tables for this post, the market was in the middle of an extended slide that had begun in the beginning of September, and had taken the market down 10% with no bottom in sight:
Recall S&P 500 is large cap (TSP C Fund), W4500 is small cap (TSP S Fund), and EFA is international stocks (TSP I Fund). Charts from Google Finance.
Not a very easy time to think about or write about buying stocks is it. I had thought about just posting my charts up and saying something to the effect of “waiting for an end to the decline before I consider buying again.” But I ran out of time (per usual) and left for vacation. Well apparently the market liked being ignored by me, because when I got back, this is what I found:
Quite the turnaround, no? Let’s take a look and see where this puts us for the year:Up to this point, the large caps are back up 5%, the small caps back to even, and the international stocks are still way under-performing at about 7.5% down. None of this should come as a surprise…as the action on the first few days of the year suggested that the most probably outcome for this year would be a small gain or loss, and NOT a repeat of 2013. Of course, there is still 2.5 months this year, and a lot can happen in that time.
Personally, I still have 1 Roth worth of purchases to make in this calendar year (while technically, you can contribute up till April 15th, it’s much simpler tax-wize if you keep it within the year), so I will be pointing out the stocks on the following charts that are on my radar to buy. Recall, my current plan is to make purchases in $1,000 amounts, or $500 amounts on top of existing positions up to $1,000. With $5,500 allowed per year, we could be looking at anywhere from 6 stocks to 7 or 8, depending on how many current position we increase. As an aside, the IRS is raising the 401k limit next year to $18,000 from $17,500…the IRA limits remain the same.
Champions (25 or more years of annual dividend growth)
You could pretty much consider every stock in this table to be a good long term buy, but for the immediate future we’re looking at buying:
- WAG (increase to existing)
- CVX (increase to existing)
- XOM (increase to existing)
- MCD (increase to existing)
In the above cases, the stocks we already own, have gone down over the past months, meaning they are an even stronger buy than when we bought them initially. That’s OK. We’ll buy them cheaper now, and pick the others on this table up when prices are more advantageous.
Contenders (10-24 Years or more of annual dividend growth)
- COP (increase to existing)
Challengers (5-9 Years or more of annual dividend growth)
A few not in the above charts:
There are a few stocks we’re looking at that don’t make the above charts due to not enough dividend growth history. They are:
I know this post has been light on words an information, but with the time I have I figured the charts are better with few words than not at all. I am thinking of moving to a quarterly update with more in-depth analysis for 2015, with more frequent posts about individual stocks (or two) or general market analysis. We’ll see. Stay tuned to see what we buy.